Probabilistic Thinking - Bet Calculator

We briefly mentioned probabilistic thinking on stream, a few people were confused and I think this is a great article that illuminates the idea pretty well

https://cobie.substack.com/p/probabilistic-thinking?s=r

Got questions about what to do with the "probabilities" that you estimate when you're doing probabilistic thinking on positions.

A simple formula is the Kelly Criterion

I think that's probably the most available calculator possible

And I think for basic usage, it's more than enough.

https://dqydj.com/kelly-criterion-bet-calculator/

So if you're one of the people who struggle with bet sizing because either 1. you don't give a fk about risk % or 2. you just find urself over/under betting

This is a good resource to start your journey to uhh proper sizing.

So for example the above is..

65% chance of being correct. You have a potential 2 to 1 odds, and your capital.

This isn't always the "optimal" amount but it's a basic starting point that I feel like most people should at least consider.

If you have your own system for sizing and what not, more power to you.