Portfolio Management - Balancing Exposure in Altseason
This stream is an in-depth educational session on crypto portfolio management and trading strategy during a strong bull market phase - particularly how to balance exposure across timeframes and setups. I cover risk management, market structure, timing entries, and leveraging opportunity without falling into emotional traps like FOMO or overexposure.
PART 1: Types of exposure/setups
Core positions in spot, for high conviction plays
Typically high timeframe plays, could be at a HTF bottom for full reversal, or inflection point for a HTF continuation (like my ETH spot buys at 1780, or XRP daily compression), or daily reversal compression for alts that are still lagging, maybe quite some potential on new listings from a few months ago that got rekt)
when you know it's going higher but not sure about invalidation, not sure about timing the entry properly
ensures you capture the move up
keeping this exposure prevents fomo on lower timeframes/sidelined cope
Safe intraweek plays
continuation plays on strong coins (stop trying to be a hero catching a lagger or weak coin)
typically 4h trend or 1h compression plays with pretty wide stop, confluence with horizontal/OB
the EV comes from the high winrate, hence important to use a wide stop and not get wicked out stupidly
Degen plays
on coins that have the parabolic look (see image attached from the "Momentum 101" lesson, you wanna take degen plays on coins that look like the image on the left
the EV comes from both the high winrate and high R:R, hence the justification for taking a degen play (in regular conditions, you gotta there's always a trade-off between high R:R and high winrate, in altseason you get both)
these typically 15m or 30m compressions or 1h trend continuations on strong coins (there is a lesson on Whop dedicated to the "1h trend continuation setup"). If you want degen trades on breakout you will rarely get any from me, you wanna follow CBS for these!
note: 15m trend continuation is valid too but better for scalpers or really when things go parabolic and there's a high chance of low TF blow-off. In my opinion, if you're not a low TF trader you have no business trading 15m chart in a bullrun, focus on catching the meat of the move without getting chopped.
30~40% cash
vital to buy dips,
watching price retrace while being fully exposed and nothing to buy the dip may make you take some profits where you should be adding size,
no better feeling than resting bids filled on a flush while everyone gets liquidated
it's super EV+ to have resting bids quite lower, and it very often gives the most comfy trades, where you have a high probability of being instantly in profits after getting filled
you want 10-20% cash around daily trend for "semi-stinky bids" so that's typically 10-15% lower than current price, and spread the other 20% in very stinky bids
don't worry about not being fully exposed and having so much cash, because at the time you want the max exposure (ie when we get a parabolic move) you can have exposure increased to more than 100% through leverage on degen plays, or even some safer intraweek plays. Basically keeping 30-40% of cash doesn't not mean total exposure = 60% of your account at all times (except for specific conditions I never go over 150% exposure)
very important, if we lose the daily trend, you want to stop bidding too aggressively and only keep the really stinky bids, I use a good example in the video
As momentum accelerates, you want to focus more on degen plays, and as momentum slows down you wanna focus more on the safe intraweek plays
Part 2: The playbook on pullbacks
Nothing really new here, it's more like a recap of the overall system, nothing really new if you've already been using the system for a while. But it's good because I can refer to every type of setups discussed in Part 1
Lose 1h trend
wait for 4h trend to catchup with price for a safe intraweek play
on very strong coins you can go for 15m /30m compression setups for degen plays
after a breakout/strong reaction from 4h trend you can take degen plays on 1h trend (you must have escaped from the chop)
Lose 4h trend
wait for daily trend to catch up with price for safer swings/intraweek
wait for 1h/2h compressions
on very strong coins you can bid 1h EMA200, for a V-reversal without compression, it's especially good when it's a mini low TF flush
Lose daily trend
If we were quite above the daily trend and we drop below through a big flush, it means we're filling stink bids! It's an opportunity! Closing back above daily trend is a very good sign!
If we start closing below daily trend and daily trend is turning descending = caution we might need to re-accumulate for longer => maybe look for 4h compressions
Technical Tools and Systems
EMA System
Track 1h and 4h EMAs.
When 1h trend is lost, look to 4h EMA as new support.
Use daily trend for spot bid placement if HTF is still intact.
Compression Patterns
Use 15m or 30m compressions to identify pre-breakout setups.
These are high-EV trades, especially when combined with strong market momentum.
Psychological Discipline & Risk Management
Don’t over-leverage just to feel "in the trade".
Accept variance - wins and losses are part of the game.
Avoid revenge trading and emotional exposure shifts.
Stay humble, size conservatively, and focus on execution over ego.
Closing Advice
Keep exposure! if the HTF structure is bullish you want to be exposed! if market resumes the pump and you have no exposure you will FOMO/take shit trades,
However keeping exposure doesn't mean always being in short-term leveraged trades, you wanna work like a sniper with leverage!,
Since the win rate on longs will be higher than outside of alt season, you do want to increase your risk compared to range/crab market.,
It is the right time, such favorable conditions are only here a few months every couple years or a few weeks every year you gotta take advantage of it. But that doesn't mean being x10 long on entire account all the time!